Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Oakville Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201300 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,722 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51510201300 covers part of the Oakville area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 4.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs 16% here against 41.2% across Alexandria City.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,644
Renter share39.5%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$210,577
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
15
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
11
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8236, -77.0544 · click any tract to drill in
Why Oakville scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,519 rent vs county FMR
5.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Oakville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 41%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Oakville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.6%Housing insecurity
- 3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.1%Food insecurity
- 3.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.2%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 18.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Oakville
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 5.1% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 3.5% against 15.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $2,519, 21% above the Alexandria average.
It sits 0.9 points below the Alexandria City average of 5.7. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.5/10.
Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $210,577, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201300?
Census tract 51510201300 in the Oakville neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201300?
Median gross rent is $2,519/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 16% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201300?
3.6% of residents in tract 51510201300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,722.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 4th, minority 32th, housing 41th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201300 considered part of Oakville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201300 fall within Oakville (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201300 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201300 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201300 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Related