Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally
Varsity Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200301 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,225 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 6/10, tract 51510200301 in the Varsity Park area of Alexandria, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,225 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.5/10.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 38%
Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units1,310
Renter share64.7%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate6.1%
Median income$95,147
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8261, -77.1165 · click any tract to drill in
Why Varsity Park scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.1% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,033 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Varsity Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 38%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 52%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.2%Food insecurity
- 12.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 17.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Varsity Park
Severe burden reaches 22%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Nationally it ranks #18,163 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. 41% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $2,033, close to the Alexandria average. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $95,147.
65% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200301?
Census tract 51510200301 in the Varsity Park neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200301?
Median gross rent is $2,033/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200301?
6.1% of residents in tract 51510200301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,225.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 38th, minority 78th, housing 52th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200301 considered part of Varsity Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200301 fall within Varsity Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200301 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200301 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200301 scores 6/10, right in line with the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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