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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Virginia Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington

Tract 51013101402 · Arlington County, VA · pop 2,252 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

51013101402 is a census tract in the Virginia Square area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,252. The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 24% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,234
Renter share40.7%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$173,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Virginia Square
Low
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 71 tracts In Arlington
Moderate
Within county
51 th percentile
Rank, 51st percentileLowHigh
#35 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
Moderate
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#226 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8858, -77.1124 · click any tract to drill in

Why Virginia Square scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$2,761 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Virginia Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Virginia Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.65.6This tracttract 101402Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.33%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.3%Peak (2016)
  • 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Virginia Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Virginia Square

22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.6/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.2/10.

Food insecurity runs 4.7% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 2.9% against 15.2% nationally.

The voucher gap is 19.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. At $2,761 a month, rents run 19% over what the rest of Arlington commands. The filing record is not thin: 2 evictions over 1 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 0.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 0.3% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.3/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101402?

Census tract 51013101402 in the Virginia Square neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013101402?

Median gross rent is $2,761/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101402?

6.2% of residents in tract 51013101402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,252.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 4th, minority 45th, housing 60th.
Q5

Is tract 51013101402 considered part of Virginia Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101402 fall within Virginia Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013101402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013101402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.33% of renter households, peaking at 0.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013101402 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013101402 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101402 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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