Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Kerrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City
Tract 51153901212 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,569 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51153901212 is a census tract in the Kerrydale area of Dale City, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 7,569 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,193
Renter share17.7%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$134,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
7
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dale City and the region
Centroid at 38.6684, -77.3531 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kerrydale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,980 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2
How Kerrydale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 73
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 69%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 159Total filings over 1 yrs
- 27.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 27.2%Peak (2016)
- 159Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kerrydale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.5%Food insecurity
- 12.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 12.6%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 30.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Kerrydale
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10. Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 37% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Court records carry 159 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 27.2% of renter households.
In a typical year about 27.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.6/10. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $134,125, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901212
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901212?
Census tract 51153901212 in the Kerrydale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901212?
Median gross rent is $1,980/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901212?
4.6% of residents in tract 51153901212 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,569.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901212?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 86th, minority 83th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901212 considered part of Kerrydale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901212 fall within Kerrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901212?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 159 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901212 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.23% of renter households, peaking at 27.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901212 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901212 compare to Dale City overall?
Tract 51153901212 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dale City
Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Forestdale
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Evansdale
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Brightwood Forest
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Daleview Manor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Silverdale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cloverdale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Princedale
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Neabsco Hills
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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