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Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04013941300 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,949 · 4% of tract blocks fall in Mesa

Tract 04013941300 sits in Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 5,949. 27% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 10% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,906
Renter share13.4%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate28.4%
Median income$42,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 133 tracts In Mesa
High
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#257 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
National
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#39,308 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.5222, -111.7981 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mesa scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
28.4% poverty · this tract
7.1
Supply constraint
$802 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Mesa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mesa risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 941300Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 14Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 0.83%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.3%Peak (2005)
  • 6Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040139413002001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 2 filings (0.51/100 renter HHs)2003: 2 filings (0.51/100 renter HHs)2004: 4 filings (1.02/100 renter HHs)2005: 6 filings (1.28/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mesa

Average gross rent is $802, 50% below the Mesa average. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Food insecurity runs 37.9% against 17.8% nationally. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

The poverty rate is 28%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. 15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Housing insecurity runs 24.7% against 14.2% nationally.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 14 filings here across 4 tracked years. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

Filings peaked in 2005 at 1.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 13% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013941300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013941300?

Census tract 04013941300 in Mesa scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013941300?

Median gross rent is $802/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013941300?

28.4% of residents in tract 04013941300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,949.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013941300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 89th, minority 85th, housing 94th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013941300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013941300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.83% of renter households, peaking at 1.3% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013941300 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013941300 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013941300 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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