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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Melrose District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Phoenix

Tract 04013107403 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,200 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Tract 04013107403 covers the Melrose District area of Phoenix in Arizona. Home to 2,200 residents, it scores 6.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 82% of US census tracts.

70% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 49% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,606 monthly, set against $51,466 in average yearly household income, roughly 37% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43% Stable renters 18% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units954
Renter share61.4%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate40.9%
Median income$51,466

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 12 tracts In Melrose District
High
Within parent city
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#36 of 379 tracts In Phoenix
Very High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#164 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Phoenix and the region

Centroid at 33.5150, -112.0955 · click any tract to drill in

Why Melrose District scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
40.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,606 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0

How Melrose District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Melrose District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 107403Phoenix: 2.82.8Phoenixparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 92

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Melrose District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Melrose District

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 92nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013107403

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013107403?

Census tract 04013107403 in the Melrose District neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013107403?

Median gross rent is $1,606/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013107403?

40.9% of residents in tract 04013107403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,200.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013107403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 84th, minority 81th, housing 78th.
Q5

Is tract 04013107403 considered part of Melrose District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013107403 fall within Melrose District (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013107403 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013107403 compare to Phoenix overall?

Tract 04013107403 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Phoenix at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix

Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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