Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Melrose District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Phoenix
Tract 04013107403 ·
Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,200 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 04013107403 covers part of the Melrose District area of Phoenix, AZ, and scores 5/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 49%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43%Stable renters 18%Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units954
Renter share61.4%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate40.9%
Median income$51,466
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
27th percentile
#9 of 12 tracts In Melrose District
Low
Within parent city
88th percentile
#48 of 379 tracts In Phoenix
High
Within county
94th percentile
#62 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very High
Within state
91th percentile
#165 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Phoenix and the region
Centroid at 33.5150, -112.0955 · click any tract to drill in
Why Melrose District scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
40.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,606 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0
How Melrose District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
94%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
81%Racial/ethnic minority
78%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Melrose District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
22.1%Housing insecurity
15.0%Utility-shutoff threat
31.1%Food insecurity
28.2%SNAP enrollment
16.1%Transit barriers
17.8%No health insurance
19.0%Frequent mental distress
36.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Melrose District
70% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.
The poverty rate is 41%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. Set annual rent against average income of $51,466 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Food insecurity runs 31.1% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.
Housing insecurity runs 22.1% against 14.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 61% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013107403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013107403?
Census tract 04013107403 in the Melrose District neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013107403?
Median gross rent is $1,606/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013107403?
40.9% of residents in tract 04013107403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,200.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013107403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 84th, minority 81th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 04013107403 considered part of Melrose District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013107403 fall within Melrose District (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013107403 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013107403 compare to Phoenix overall?
Tract 04013107403 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix
Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.