Tierra Serena Eviction Risk: Lower

The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1.2/10. Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.7/10.

18% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 4.2% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Filings are well documented here: 599 across 3 observed tracts.

The voucher gap is 14.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 16.1% of renter households. At $1,577 a month, rents sit 12% over what the rest of Catalina Foothills commands.

4.6% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. The most recent observed rate, 4.4% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 9 mapped neighborhoods of Catalina Foothills, it ranks #2 by risk, the upper third. Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

With little internal variation, 3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.