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Neighborhood · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally

Emery Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003706 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,613 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Tract 04019003706, home to 6,613 residents in the Emery Park area of Tucson, scores 5.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 66% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

45% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $871 monthly, set against $47,095 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 54% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 30% Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units2,269
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate22.2%
Median income$47,095

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#3 of 8 tracts In Emery Park
Elevated
Within parent city
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#44 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Elevated
Within county
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#46 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#221 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1597, -110.9523 · click any tract to drill in

Why Emery Park scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
22.2% poverty · this tract
5.6
Supply constraint
$871 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Emery Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Emery Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.55.5This tracttract 003706Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,090Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 20.21%Avg annual filing rate
  • 29.8%Peak (2008)
  • 163Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190037062004: 202 filings (23.76/100 renter HHs)2005: 193 filings (25.21/100 renter HHs)2006: 171 filings (22.33/100 renter HHs)2007: 157 filings (20.51/100 renter HHs)2008: 228 filings (29.78/100 renter HHs)2009: 132 filings (17.24/100 renter HHs)2010: 132 filings (16.44/100 renter HHs)2011: 192 filings (19.65/100 renter HHs)2012: 198 filings (20.27/100 renter HHs)2013: 179 filings (18.32/100 renter HHs)2016: 143 filings (13.57/100 renter HHs)2017: 163 filings (15.46/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 19% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Emery Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Emery Park

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 24.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 96th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003706

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003706?

Census tract 04019003706 in the Emery Park neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003706?

Median gross rent is $871/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003706?

22.2% of residents in tract 04019003706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,613.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003706?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 85th, minority 93th, housing 92th.
Q5

Is tract 04019003706 considered part of Emery Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003706 fall within Emery Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003706?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,090 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003706 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.21% of renter households, peaking at 29.8% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019003706 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019003706 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003706 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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