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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Palo Verde Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019002802 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,122 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Tract 04019002802 sits in the Palo Verde area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. Population here is 4,122. Against Pima County at 43.8%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 32% Owners 24%
Tract context
Occupied units2,151
Renter share76.5%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate26.4%
Median income$42,219

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 6 tracts In Palo Verde
High
Within parent city
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#13 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Very High
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2614, -110.9183 · click any tract to drill in

Why Palo Verde scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.4% poverty · this tract
6.6
Supply constraint
$1,103 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Palo Verde compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Palo Verde risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 002802Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,047Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 11.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.3%Peak (2004)
  • 141Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190028022004: 232 filings (15.27/100 renter HHs)2005: 222 filings (16.64/100 renter HHs)2006: 213 filings (15.97/100 renter HHs)2007: 166 filings (12.44/100 renter HHs)2008: 205 filings (15.37/100 renter HHs)2009: 155 filings (11.62/100 renter HHs)2010: 108 filings (6.78/100 renter HHs)2011: 141 filings (8.94/100 renter HHs)2012: 170 filings (10.77/100 renter HHs)2013: 177 filings (11.22/100 renter HHs)2016: 117 filings (7.96/100 renter HHs)2017: 141 filings (9.60/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 39% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Palo Verde. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Palo Verde

Severe burden reaches 27%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. 76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,047 filings here across 12 tracked years.

Filings peaked in 2004 at 15.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 11.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.9/10. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,103, close to the Tucson average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019002802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002802?

Census tract 04019002802 in the Palo Verde neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019002802?

Median gross rent is $1,103/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002802?

26.4% of residents in tract 04019002802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,122.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 53th, minority 61th, housing 96th.
Q5

Is tract 04019002802 considered part of Palo Verde?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002802 fall within Palo Verde (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,047 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.88% of renter households, peaking at 15.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019002802 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019002802 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019002802 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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