Within neighborhood
20
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Palo Verde Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019002803 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,630 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 04019002803 covers part of the Palo Verde area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,630. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units1,240
Renter share64.9%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate14.2%
Median income$53,364
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2561, -110.9207 · click any tract to drill in
Why Palo Verde scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.2% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,045 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Palo Verde compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 66%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 629Total filings over 12 yrs
- 8.04%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.7%Peak (2005)
- 44Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 20% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Palo Verde. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.8%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.6%Food insecurity
- 16.1%SNAP enrollment
- 11.5%Transit barriers
- 14.1%No health insurance
- 20.0%Frequent mental distress
- 35.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Palo Verde
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs 53% here against 43.8% across Pima County. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The filing record is not thin: 629 evictions over 12 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2005, when 10.7% of renter households were served.
Average gross rent is $1,045, 9% below the Tucson average. In a typical year about 8.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #44,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.3/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Pima County average of 3.9 closely. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $53,364. 65% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002803?
Census tract 04019002803 in the Palo Verde neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002803?
Median gross rent is $1,045/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002803?
14.2% of residents in tract 04019002803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,630.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 66th, minority 65th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 04019002803 considered part of Palo Verde?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002803 fall within Palo Verde (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 629 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.04% of renter households, peaking at 10.7% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019002803 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019002803 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002803 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002202
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Vandenberg Village
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004407
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002400
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002503
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002504
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Related