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Neighborhood · Ranked #4,393 of 84,120 nationally

Canyon Green Eviction Risk: High , Novato

Tract 06041104102 · Marin, CA · pop 5,274 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

06041104102 is a census tract in the Canyon Green area of Novato, CA. It scores 8.9/10 for landlords. Severe burden reaches 53%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
8.9
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 15% Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,977
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate20.3%
Median income$90,956

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 4 tracts In Canyon Green
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 13 tracts In Novato
Very High
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 62 tracts In Marin
Very High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#1,974 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.0879, -122.5586 · click any tract to drill in

Why Canyon Green scores 8.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Novato
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
20.3% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$2,389 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Novato
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Novato
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Novato
6.5

How Canyon Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Canyon Green risk score vs. parent city / county / state8.9This tracttract 1041027.5Novatoparent city7.3Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Canyon Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Canyon Green

72% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Marin County average of 51.0%. The main counterweight is court filing pressure at 1.1/10.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. It sits 1.6 points above the Marin County average of 7.3. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.3/10.

The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the national scale it lands near the 95th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $2,389, close to the Novato average. Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $90,956. 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041104102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041104102?

Census tract 06041104102 in the Canyon Green neighborhood scores 8.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06041104102?

Median gross rent is $2,389/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041104102?

20.3% of residents in tract 06041104102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,274.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041104102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 83th, minority 74th, housing 71th.
Q5

Is tract 06041104102 considered part of Canyon Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041104102 fall within Canyon Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06041104102 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06041104102 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041104102 scores 8.9/10, higher than the parent city of Novato at 7.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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