Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,017 of 84,120 nationally
Canyon Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Novato
Tract 06041103200 · Marin, CA · pop 7,457 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 06041103200 covers Canyon Green in Novato, home to 7,457 residents. For landlords it grades 4.8/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 66th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 74% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 45% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,519 a month against an average household income of $105,423 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units2,594
Renter share35.6%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$105,423
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
36
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Novato and the region
Centroid at 38.0983, -122.5861 · click any tract to drill in
Why Canyon Green scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Novato
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$2,519 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Novato
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Novato
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Novato
6.5
How Canyon Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 68%Socioeconomic
- 79%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Canyon Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.9%Food insecurity
- 11.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 8.1%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 31.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Canyon Green
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Novato, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Marin County average of 5.4 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 11.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 06041103200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041103200?
Census tract 06041103200 in the Canyon Green neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06041103200?
Median gross rent is $2,519/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06041103200?
10.2% of residents in tract 06041103200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,457.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06041103200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 79th, minority 51th, housing 87th.
Q5
Is tract 06041103200 considered part of Canyon Green?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041103200 fall within Canyon Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06041103200 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06041103200 compare to Novato overall?
Tract 06041103200 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Novato at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Novato
Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Canyon Green
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Old Town
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
06041105001
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
Canyon Green
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
06041104104
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
06041104200
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
Old Town
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CA
06041102100
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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