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Neighborhood · Brandon, FL

Winthrop Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 11,574 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.3/10 · range 3.2–3.4

Winthrop is a white-hispanic neighborhood in Brandon with 2 census tracts and a population of 11,574 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3.3/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 56% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 33% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,669/month sits 6% lower than the Brandon citywide average ($1,784).

Risk score
3.3
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Winthrop vs Brandon How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
55.5% +66%
Brandon: 33.4%
Average gross rent
$1,669 -6%
Brandon: $1,784
Average HH income
$77,595 +1%
Brandon: $77,068
Poverty rate
12.6% +5%
Brandon: 12.0%
Renter share
51.0% +16%
Brandon: 43.8%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Winthrop and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 3.2–3.4

Why Winthrop scores 3.3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts
5.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 5.8–5.8 across tracts
5.8
Rent control risk
56% of income on rent · Range 7.4–7.6 across tracts
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.1–1.5 across tracts
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
51% renter households · Range 5.6–8.7 across tracts
7.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.0–6.6 across tracts
6.4
Economic stress
12.6% below poverty line · Range 2.4–4.4 across tracts
3.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.2–3.6 across tracts
3.4
Risk score comparison

Winthrop vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Winthrop score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Winthrop: 3.33.3WinthropNeighborhoodParent city: 2.42.4Parent cityhost cityState: 2.52.5Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Winthrop

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
12057013410 3.4 4,392 71% $1,613
12057013322 3.2 7,182 46% $1,704
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 76

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 65%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 68%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 71%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 77%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Winthrop

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,684Total filings (sum)
  • 12.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 47.5%Peak year (2010)
  • 5.98%Latest filed (2016)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 875Total filings 2020-21
  • 6.3Avg monthly observed
  • 6.0Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 1.06×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).

Frequently asked

About Winthrop

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Winthrop?

Winthrop scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Winthrop compare to Brandon overall?

Winthrop scores 0.9 points higher than Brandon overall (2.4/10). Renters spend 56% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,669 vs $1,784.
Q3

What is the average rent in Winthrop?

Average gross rent in Winthrop is $1,669/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Winthrop residents are renters?

51% of Winthrop households are renter-occupied (vs 44% in Brandon). The neighborhood has 11,574 residents.
Q5

Is Winthrop a high social-vulnerability area?

Winthrop sits in the 76th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Winthrop have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Winthrop is census tract 12057013410 (score 3.4/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.2 to 3.4, a spread of 0.2 points.
Q7

How safe is Winthrop for landlords?

Winthrop carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.3/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Brandon as a whole (2.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Winthrop?

Winthrop has 10,778 residents (White-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (42.1%), Hispanic / Latino (36.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (14.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Winthrop

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Brandon

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Winthrop.

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