Winthrop Village Eviction Risk: Lower

Severe burden reaches 32%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1/10.

Cost burden runs 53% against 42.1% citywide, putting Winthrop Village 10.5% over its own city. Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.3/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.2 to 5.4, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 7.9/10. Court records carry 200 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

Filing activity peaked in 2009 at 13.5% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 3.3% in 2016, is well off that peak.

For a like-for-like read, Oak Crest and The Greens score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. 35% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.2 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.