Valley Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10. The voucher gap is 28.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.9/10.

35% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the St. Louis County average of 42.0%. Court records carry 130 eviction filings across 8 observed years. It sits 0.8 points above the St. Louis County average of 4.0.

Food insecurity runs 10.8% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2005, when 6.4% of renter households were served. At $1,562 a month, rents run 8% over what the rest of Valley Park commands.

In a typical year about 5.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MO average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.