Kalivas/Union Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 33%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. 88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 26%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation is 30.7% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 25.5% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. At $1,323 a month, rents sit 15% under what the rest of Manchester commands.

Running cool is tenant-organizing strength, at 3/10. That places it #1 of 22 neighborhoods in Manchester. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 5.4/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.