Duke Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

Against a Durham baseline of 29.4%, 43% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1/10. The poverty rate is 28%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Court records for this tract carry 3,639 eviction filings.

Running hot is economic stress at 7.1/10. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 61.8% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 23.1% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 58 mapped neighborhoods of Durham, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Hillcrest and Swann's Mill.

Social vulnerability runs high at 7.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.