Eastside Eagles Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 55%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. What pushes the score up most is economic stress at 9.6/10. Set annual rent against average household income of $25,567 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

The severe-burden share is 27%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. This is a renter market: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.3/10. Filings are well documented here: 1,062 across 2 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 19.5% of renter households. That places it #1 of 26 neighborhoods in Erie.

Judgments average 12.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Baldwin Park and Little Italy. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Its 2 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

With little internal variation, 5.8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.