Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Trails II Eviction Risk: Lower , Scottsdale
Tract 04013218200 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 7,590 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
04013218200 is a census tract in the Trails II area of Scottsdale, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 7,590 residents. around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units3,092
Renter share61.7%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate12.1%
Median income$102,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Scottsdale and the region
Centroid at 33.4619, -111.9164 · click any tract to drill in
Why Trails II scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
12.1% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,916 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.0
How Trails II compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 48
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 40%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 93%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 370Total filings over 5 yrs
- 9.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.7%Peak (2003)
- 79Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 27% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Trails II. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.5%Food insecurity
- 7.2%SNAP enrollment
- 7.2%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 23.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Trails II
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Court records carry 370 eviction filings across 5 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
The worst year on record was 2003, when 10.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 9.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 5.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,916, close to the Scottsdale average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013218200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013218200?
Census tract 04013218200 in the Trails II neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013218200?
Median gross rent is $1,916/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013218200?
12.1% of residents in tract 04013218200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,590.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013218200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 4th, minority 60th, housing 93th.
Q5
Is tract 04013218200 considered part of Trails II?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013218200 fall within Trails II (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013218200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 370 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013218200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.07% of renter households, peaking at 10.7% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013218200 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013218200 compare to Scottsdale overall?
Tract 04013218200 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Scottsdale at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Scottsdale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Scottsdale
Top eight tracts in Scottsdale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Main Street Arts District
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Downtown Scottsdale
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Trails II
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Gainey Ranch
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04013217700
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Shiloh Canyon
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Country Horizons
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Santo Tomas
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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