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Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

Gainey Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Scottsdale

Tract 04013216830 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,785 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

04013216830 is a census tract in the Gainey Ranch area of Scottsdale, AZ. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 31% Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units1,664
Renter share62.5%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate12.0%
Median income$67,303

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Gainey Ranch
Very High
Within parent city
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 61 tracts In Scottsdale
Very High
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#399 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#702 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Scottsdale and the region

Centroid at 33.5822, -111.9348 · click any tract to drill in

Why Gainey Ranch scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
12.0% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,809 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.0

How Gainey Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Gainey Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.83.8This tracttract 216830Scottsdale: 3.23.2Scottsdaleparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 41

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 706Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 21.65%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.1%Peak (2004)
  • 63Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040132168302001: 166 filings (25.27/100 renter HHs)2002: 177 filings (26.94/100 renter HHs)2003: 122 filings (18.57/100 renter HHs)2004: 178 filings (27.09/100 renter HHs)2005: 63 filings (10.40/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 62% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Gainey Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Gainey Ranch

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $67,303, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 706 filings here across 5 tracked years. roughly one in two of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.

SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally. At $1,809 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Scottsdale commands.

The worst year on record was 2004, when 27.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 21.7% of renter households face a filing.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013216830

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013216830?

Census tract 04013216830 in the Gainey Ranch neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013216830?

Median gross rent is $1,809/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013216830?

12.0% of residents in tract 04013216830 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,785.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013216830?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 16th, minority 41th, housing 65th.
Q5

Is tract 04013216830 considered part of Gainey Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013216830 fall within Gainey Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013216830?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 706 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013216830 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.65% of renter households, peaking at 27.1% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013216830 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013216830 compare to Scottsdale overall?

Tract 04013216830 scores 3.8/10, higher than the parent city of Scottsdale at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Scottsdale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Scottsdale

Top eight tracts in Scottsdale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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