Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Trails II Eviction Risk: Moderate , Scottsdale
Tract 04013218300 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,607 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
04013218300 is a census tract in the Trails II area of Scottsdale, AZ. It scores 4/10 for landlords. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units2,865
Renter share32.5%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$70,899
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
97
th percentile
Very High
Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Scottsdale and the region
Centroid at 33.4605, -111.9022 · click any tract to drill in
Why Trails II scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,369 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Scottsdale
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Scottsdale
2.0
How Trails II compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 38%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 37%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 552Total filings over 5 yrs
- 11.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.5%Peak (2003)
- 100Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Trails II. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.6%Food insecurity
- 10.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.8%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 31.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Trails II
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Average gross rent is $1,369, 32% below the Scottsdale average. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened.
21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 552 filings here across 5 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 15.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 11.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 7.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $70,899.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013218300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013218300?
Census tract 04013218300 in the Trails II neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013218300?
Median gross rent is $1,369/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013218300?
14.5% of residents in tract 04013218300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,607.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013218300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 54th, minority 37th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 04013218300 considered part of Trails II?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013218300 fall within Trails II (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013218300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 552 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013218300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.75% of renter households, peaking at 15.5% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013218300 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013218300 compare to Scottsdale overall?
Tract 04013218300 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Scottsdale at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Scottsdale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Scottsdale
Top eight tracts in Scottsdale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Main Street Arts District
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Downtown Scottsdale
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Gainey Ranch
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04013217700
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Shiloh Canyon
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Country Horizons
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Santo Tomas
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Santo Tomas
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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