Neighborhood · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally

Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003103 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,535 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Here is how census tract 04019003103, in the Poet's Square neighborhood of Tucson eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,535. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

51% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $921 a month while the average household earns $35,893 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. Renters make up 82% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 40% Owners 18%

Tract context

Occupied units1,484

Renter share82.1%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate21.8%

Median income$35,893

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2383, -110.8984 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poet's Square scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tucson

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.9

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

21.8% poverty · this tract

5.5

Supply constraint

$921 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tucson

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tucson

5.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tucson

4.5

How Poet's Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

90%Socioeconomic
30%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
95%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.6%Housing insecurity
13.8%Utility-shutoff threat
25.3%Food insecurity
23.8%SNAP enrollment
14.3%Transit barriers
15.8%No health insurance
20.2%Frequent mental distress
41.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 13.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003103

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003103?

Census tract 04019003103 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04019003103?

Median gross rent is $921/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003103?

21.8% of residents in tract 04019003103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,535.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 30th, minority 69th, housing 95th.

Is tract 04019003103 considered part of Poet's Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003103 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04019003103 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04019003103 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003103 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.