Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

The Polo Greens Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bakersfield

Tract 06029003815 · Kern, CA · pop 6,710 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

06029003815 is a census tract in the The Polo Greens area of Bakersfield, CA. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,710. The severe-burden share is 49%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 9% Owners 76%

Tract context

Occupied units1,845

Renter share23.8%

SVI overall0.33

Poverty rate10.5%

Median income$135,574

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bakersfield and the region

Centroid at 35.4054, -119.1365 · click any tract to drill in

Why The Polo Greens scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bakersfield

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.5

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

10.5% poverty · this tract

2.6

Supply constraint

$2,031 rent vs county FMR

9.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bakersfield

4.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bakersfield

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bakersfield

5.5

How The Polo Greens compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 33

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

32%Socioeconomic
55%Household composition
68%Racial/ethnic minority
19%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within The Polo Greens. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.9%Housing insecurity
6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
13.3%Food insecurity
11.5%SNAP enrollment
7.9%Transit barriers
7.9%No health insurance
18.5%Frequent mental distress
26.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in The Polo Greens

The voucher gap is 47.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.7/10.

Average gross rent is $2,031, 38% above the Bakersfield average. Against Kern County at 49.2%, 61% of renters here are cost-burdened.

It sits 1.7 points below the Kern County average of 6.4. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.6/10.

That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 24% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $135,574, annual rent is just 18%. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.8 points cooler.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06029003815

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06029003815?

Census tract 06029003815 in the The Polo Greens neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06029003815?

Median gross rent is $2,031/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06029003815?

10.5% of residents in tract 06029003815 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,710.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06029003815?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 55th, minority 68th, housing 19th.

Is tract 06029003815 considered part of The Polo Greens?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06029003815 fall within The Polo Greens (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06029003815 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06029003815 compare to Bakersfield overall?

Tract 06029003815 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Bakersfield at 6.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bakersfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bakersfield

Top eight tracts in Bakersfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.