Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally

Canyon Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Novato

Tract 06041102202 · Marin, CA · pop 5,393 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

In Canyon Green in Novato, census tract 06041102202 scores 5.8/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 70% of US census tracts.

58% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 41% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,934 a month against an average household income of $106,458 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 23% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 10% Owners 77%

Tract context

Occupied units1,998

Renter share22.9%

SVI overall0.35

Poverty rate9.4%

Median income$106,458

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Novato and the region

Centroid at 38.1166, -122.5913 · click any tract to drill in

Why Canyon Green scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Novato

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

9.4% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$2,934 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Novato

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.8

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Novato

7.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Novato

6.5

How Canyon Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 35

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

29%Socioeconomic
77%Household composition
43%Racial/ethnic minority
22%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Canyon Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.6%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.7%Food insecurity
9.6%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
6.6%No health insurance
15.0%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Canyon Green

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Novato, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Marin County average of 5.4 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 35th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041102202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041102202?

Census tract 06041102202 in the Canyon Green neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041102202?

Median gross rent is $2,934/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041102202?

9.4% of residents in tract 06041102202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,393.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041102202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 77th, minority 43th, housing 22th.

Is tract 06041102202 considered part of Canyon Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041102202 fall within Canyon Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06041102202 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041102202 compare to Novato overall?

Tract 06041102202 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Novato at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Novato; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Novato

Top eight tracts in Novato ranked by composite eviction-risk score.