Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally

Fort Ward Heights Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria

Tract 51510200105 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,549 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51510200105 covers part of the Fort Ward Heights area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 6.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,549. 100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score

6.8

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 64% Owners 0%

Tract context

Occupied units2,088

Renter share100.0%

SVI overall0.48

Poverty rate7.9%

Median income$73,629

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8328, -77.1135 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fort Ward Heights scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

7.9% poverty · this tract

2.0

Supply constraint

$1,520 rent vs county FMR

1.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Fort Ward Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 48

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

61%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
73%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Fort Ward Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.8%Housing insecurity
11.7%Utility-shutoff threat
20.4%Food insecurity
17.5%SNAP enrollment
11.0%Transit barriers
10.4%No health insurance
18.2%Frequent mental distress
29.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fort Ward Heights

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.4/10. 21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.6/10. Average gross rent is $1,520, 27% below the Alexandria average. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Alexandria City average of 5.7. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Nationally it ranks #13,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.6 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $73,629.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200105

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200105?

Census tract 51510200105 in the Fort Ward Heights neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200105?

Median gross rent is $1,520/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200105?

7.9% of residents in tract 51510200105 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,549.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200105?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 2th, minority 86th, housing 73th.

Is tract 51510200105 considered part of Fort Ward Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200105 fall within Fort Ward Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200105 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200105 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200105 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.