Neighborhood · Ranked #71,178 of 84,120 nationally

Fort Ward Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria

Tract 51510200111 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,583 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 51510200111 belongs to Fort Ward Heights in Alexandria, Virginia. It is home to 3,583 residents and scores 6.1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. It lands near the 76th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,212 a month while the average household earns $97,619 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 77% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

2.2

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 40% Owners 23%

Tract context

Occupied units1,944

Renter share76.9%

SVI overall0.33

Poverty rate1.5%

Median income$97,619

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8368, -77.1072 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fort Ward Heights scores 2.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,212 rent vs county FMR

4.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Fort Ward Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 33

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

35%Socioeconomic
4%Household composition
67%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Fort Ward Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.3%Housing insecurity
7.5%Utility-shutoff threat
12.8%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
7.7%Transit barriers
8.6%No health insurance
17.4%Frequent mental distress
23.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fort Ward Heights

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 33rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200111

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200111?

Census tract 51510200111 in the Fort Ward Heights neighborhood scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200111?

Median gross rent is $2,212/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200111?

1.5% of residents in tract 51510200111 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,583.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200111?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 4th, minority 67th, housing 66th.

Is tract 51510200111 considered part of Fort Ward Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200111 fall within Fort Ward Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200111 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200111 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200111 scores 2.2/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.