Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally
Delta Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510200600 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 5,647 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 5.9/10, tract 51510200600 in the Delta area of Alexandria, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,647 residents. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,797
Renter share32.4%
SVI overall0.51
Poverty rate12.9%
Median income$127,844
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
93
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8074, -77.0985 · click any tract to drill in
Why Delta scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.9% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,280 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Delta compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 51
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 42%Socioeconomic
- 35%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Delta. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.3%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.5%Food insecurity
- 9.3%SNAP enrollment
- 7.0%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Delta
54% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Alexandria City average of 41.2%. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. Average gross rent is $2,280, 9% above the Alexandria average.
On the national scale it lands near the 77th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 5.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $127,844. 32% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200600?
Census tract 51510200600 in the Delta neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200600?
Median gross rent is $2,280/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200600?
12.9% of residents in tract 51510200600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,647.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 51th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 35th, minority 79th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200600 considered part of Delta?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200600 fall within Delta (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200600 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200600 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200600 scores 5.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Related