Seguin Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 38.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is eviction-process difficulty at 1/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.8/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 25%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Severe burden reaches 15%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Against the Guadalupe County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 9% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.7/10.

Statewide the TX average is 3.9, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 35% of renters. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $100,363.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.