Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Fort Ward Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510200111 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,583 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
51510200111 is a census tract in the Fort Ward Heights area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,583. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,944
Renter share76.9%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$97,619
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
55
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
55
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8368, -77.1072 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fort Ward Heights scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,212 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Fort Ward Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fort Ward Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 7.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.8%Food insecurity
- 9.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 23.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fort Ward Heights
This is renter territory: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.
The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 48% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200111
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200111?
Census tract 51510200111 in the Fort Ward Heights neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200111?
Median gross rent is $2,212/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200111?
1.5% of residents in tract 51510200111 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,583.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200111?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 4th, minority 67th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200111 considered part of Fort Ward Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200111 fall within Fort Ward Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200111 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200111 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200111 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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