Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,132 of 84,120 nationally
Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510200407 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,072 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51510200407 sits in the Lincolnia Park area of Alexandria eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.2/10. Population here is 3,072. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
Risk score
6.2
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,869
Renter share33.1%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$90,665
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8099, -77.1418 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincolnia Park scores 6.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,969 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lincolnia Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lincolnia Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.1%Food insecurity
- 7.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.3%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincolnia Park
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.7/10. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Cost burden runs 47% here against 41.2% across Alexandria City. SNAP participation runs 7.4% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.1% against 17.8% nationally.
That is riskier than roughly 80% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.5/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.0 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,969, close to the Alexandria average.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $90,665.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200407?
Census tract 51510200407 in the Lincolnia Park neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200407?
Median gross rent is $1,969/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200407?
6.8% of residents in tract 51510200407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,072.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 26th, minority 59th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200407 considered part of Lincolnia Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200407 fall within Lincolnia Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200407 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200407 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200407 scores 6.2/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Related