Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,113 of 84,120 nationally
Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Alexandria
Tract 51510200407 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,072 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51510200407, home to 3,072 residents in Lincolnia Park in Alexandria, scores 6.1/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 76% of US census tracts.
About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,969 a month while the average household earns $90,665 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 33% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,869
Renter share33.1%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$90,665
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8099, -77.1418 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincolnia Park scores 2.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,969 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lincolnia Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lincolnia Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.1%Food insecurity
- 7.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.3%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincolnia Park
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 9.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 39th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510200407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200407?
Census tract 51510200407 in the Lincolnia Park neighborhood scores 2.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510200407?
Median gross rent is $1,969/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200407?
6.8% of residents in tract 51510200407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,072.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 26th, minority 59th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 51510200407 considered part of Lincolnia Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200407 fall within Lincolnia Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510200407 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510200407 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510200407 scores 2.6/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
3.2
/ 10 · Low
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