Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #14,906 of 84,120 nationally
Lynhaven Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria
Tract 51510201205 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,303 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51510201205 covers part of the Lynhaven area of Alexandria, VA, and scores 6.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,303. 91% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 66%
Owners 9%
Tract context
Occupied units1,201
Renter share91.3%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate15.1%
Median income$106,238
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
77
th percentile
High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8413, -77.0592 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lynhaven scores 6.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.1% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$2,188 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Lynhaven compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 75%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lynhaven. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.0%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.2%Food insecurity
- 13.4%SNAP enrollment
- 9.7%Transit barriers
- 15.4%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 27.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lynhaven
Cost burden runs 28% here against 41.2% across Alexandria City. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 0.9 points above the Alexandria City average of 5.7.
Nationally it ranks #14,906 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 6.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $2,188, close to the Alexandria average.
Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $106,238.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201205
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201205?
Census tract 51510201205 in the Lynhaven neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201205?
Median gross rent is $2,188/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201205?
15.1% of residents in tract 51510201205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,303.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201205?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 14th, minority 79th, housing 75th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201205 considered part of Lynhaven?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201205 fall within Lynhaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201205 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201205 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201205 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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