Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Oakville Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria
Tract 51510201804 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,302 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 51510201804 in the Oakville area of Alexandria, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,302. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 41%
Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units1,664
Renter share67.7%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate7.5%
Median income$154,659
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Alexandria and the region
Centroid at 38.8313, -77.0488 · click any tract to drill in
Why Oakville scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.5% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,553 rent vs county FMR
6.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5
How Oakville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 40%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Oakville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.9%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.4%Food insecurity
- 4.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 4.9%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 17.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Oakville
This is renter territory: 68% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.9/10. Disability prevalence runs 17.8% against 31.5% nationally.
Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Average gross rent is $2,553, 22% above the Alexandria average. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
SNAP participation runs 4.3% against 15.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.5/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 40% of renters.
It tracks the Alexandria City average of 5.7 closely. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $154,659.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51510201804
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201804?
Census tract 51510201804 in the Oakville neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51510201804?
Median gross rent is $2,553/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201804?
7.5% of residents in tract 51510201804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,302.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201804?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 2th, minority 67th, housing 40th.
Q5
Is tract 51510201804 considered part of Oakville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201804 fall within Oakville (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51510201804 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51510201804 compare to Alexandria overall?
Tract 51510201804 scores 5.2/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria
Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Beverley Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lincolnia Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Shirley Duke
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
WestEnd Alexandria
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Dowden Terrace
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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