Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Seminary Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate , Alexandria

Tract 51510200302 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 4,767 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

51510200302 is a census tract in the Seminary Valley area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,767 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.1/10.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 22% Owners 60%

Tract context

Occupied units1,381

Renter share39.9%

SVI overall0.66

Poverty rate4.5%

Median income$161,792

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8196, -77.1174 · click any tract to drill in

Why Seminary Valley scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.5% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$2,383 rent vs county FMR

5.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Seminary Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 66

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

57%Socioeconomic
86%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
43%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Seminary Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.2%Housing insecurity
7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
14.0%Food insecurity
10.1%SNAP enrollment
7.6%Transit barriers
11.7%No health insurance
15.4%Frequent mental distress
27.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Seminary Valley

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. 46% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Alexandria City average of 41.2%. Average gross rent is $2,383, 14% above the Alexandria average.

It sits 0.8 points below the Alexandria City average of 5.7. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $161,792, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200302

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200302?

Census tract 51510200302 in the Seminary Valley neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200302?

Median gross rent is $2,383/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200302?

4.5% of residents in tract 51510200302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,767.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 86th, minority 73th, housing 43th.

Is tract 51510200302 considered part of Seminary Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200302 fall within Seminary Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200302 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200302 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200302 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.