Arizona Cowboy Eviction Risk: Moderate

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. 23% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool is supply constraint, at 1.5/10.

At $1,176 a month, rents sit 27% under what the rest of Mesa commands. Court records carry 1,375 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts. Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10.

The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 77.3% of renter households. That places it #3 of 33 neighborhoods in Mesa.

Judgments average 24.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Only 23% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability runs high at 8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Its 3 tracts score within 0.4 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.