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Neighborhood · Tucson, AZ

Jefferson Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 5,904 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.2/10 · range 5.2–5.2

Jefferson Park is a one-tract neighborhood of Tucson, AZ, population 5,904. Scored across those inputs it reaches 5.2/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. The severe-burden share is 49%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

Against a Tucson baseline of 32.8%, 68% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. What pushes the score up most is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 49%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. This is a renter market: 70% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. Court records for this tract carry 438 eviction filings.

Average gross rent is $1,299, 13% above the Tucson average of $1,145. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 5.3% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 1.7% in 2017, is well off that peak.

That places it #2 of 32 neighborhoods in Tucson. For a like-for-like read, Amphitheater and Barrio Blue Moon score within a fraction of it.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.2/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Jefferson Park vs Tucson How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
68.2% +108%
Tucson: 32.8%
Average gross rent
$1,299 +13%
Tucson: $1,145
Average HH income
$41,224 -24%
Tucson: $54,546
Poverty rate
49.1% +161%
Tucson: 18.8%
Renter share
70.2% +46%
Tucson: 48.2%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Jefferson Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 5.2–5.2

Why Jefferson Park scores 5.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts
5.9
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Rent control risk
68% of income on rent · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
70% renter households · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Economic stress
49.1% below poverty line · Range 10.0–10.0 across tracts
10.0
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Risk score comparison

Jefferson Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Jefferson Park score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Jefferson Park: 5.25.2Jefferson ParkNeighborhoodParent city: 3.83.8Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Jefferson Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04019001500 5.2 5,904 68% $1,299
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 45

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 60%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 3%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 45%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 79%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Jefferson Park

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 438Total filings (sum)
  • 2.78%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.3%Peak year (2006)
  • 1.72%Latest filed (2017)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Jefferson Park

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Jefferson Park

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Jefferson Park?

Jefferson Park scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Jefferson Park compare to Tucson overall?

Jefferson Park scores 1.4 points higher than Tucson overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 68% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,299 vs $1,145.
Q3

What is the average rent in Jefferson Park?

Average gross rent in Jefferson Park is $1,299/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Jefferson Park residents are renters?

70% of Jefferson Park households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Tucson). The neighborhood has 5,904 residents.
Q5

Is Jefferson Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Jefferson Park sits in the 45th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Jefferson Park for landlords?

Jefferson Park carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tucson as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Jefferson Park?

Jefferson Park has 5,973 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (71.1%), Hispanic / Latino (17.2%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (6.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Jefferson Park

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Tucson

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Jefferson Park.

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