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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally

Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003304 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,319 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 04019003304, home to 3,319 residents in Poet's Square in Tucson, scores 5.9/10 for landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 73rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 53% of renter households, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $988 monthly, set against $61,066 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 67% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 32% Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,776
Renter share66.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate21.0%
Median income$61,066

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Poet's Square
Low
Within parent city
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#67 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#71 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#353 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2229, -110.8822 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poet's Square scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.0% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$988 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Poet's Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Poet's Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.05.0This tracttract 003304Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,133Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 17.92%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.1%Peak (2008)
  • 113Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190033042004: 175 filings (16.72/100 renter HHs)2005: 212 filings (23.70/100 renter HHs)2006: 211 filings (23.59/100 renter HHs)2007: 218 filings (24.38/100 renter HHs)2008: 242 filings (27.06/100 renter HHs)2009: 224 filings (25.05/100 renter HHs)2010: 150 filings (13.79/100 renter HHs)2011: 173 filings (15.08/100 renter HHs)2012: 158 filings (13.78/100 renter HHs)2013: 116 filings (10.11/100 renter HHs)2016: 141 filings (12.10/100 renter HHs)2017: 113 filings (9.70/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 35% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,133 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 17.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 27.1% of renter households in 2008.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003304

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003304?

Census tract 04019003304 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003304?

Median gross rent is $988/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003304?

21.0% of residents in tract 04019003304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,319.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003304?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 29th, minority 65th, housing 76th.
Q5

Is tract 04019003304 considered part of Poet's Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003304 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003304?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,133 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.92% of renter households, peaking at 27.1% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019003304 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019003304 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003304 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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