Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003103 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,535 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 04019003103 sits in the Poet's Square area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. Population here is 2,535. Severe burden reaches 27%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 18%
Tract context
Occupied units1,484
Renter share82.1%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate21.8%
Median income$35,893
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
89
th percentile
High
Within county
93
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2383, -110.8984 · click any tract to drill in
Why Poet's Square scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.8% poverty · this tract
5.5
Supply constraint
$921 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Poet's Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 90%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.6%Housing insecurity
- 13.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.3%Food insecurity
- 23.8%SNAP enrollment
- 14.3%Transit barriers
- 15.8%No health insurance
- 20.2%Frequent mental distress
- 41.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square
82% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.7/10.
Cost burden runs roughly one in two here against 43.8% across Pima County. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Average gross rent is $921, 20% below the Tucson average.
SNAP participation runs 23.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 25.3% against 17.8% nationally.
Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003103?
Census tract 04019003103 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003103?
Median gross rent is $921/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003103?
21.8% of residents in tract 04019003103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,535.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 30th, minority 69th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003103 considered part of Poet's Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003103 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019003103 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019003103 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003103 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019004115
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miramonte
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pie Allen
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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