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Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally

Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003304 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,319 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 04019003304 sits in the Poet's Square area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. Population here is 3,319. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 32% Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,776
Renter share66.9%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate21.0%
Median income$61,066

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Poet's Square
Low
Within parent city
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#66 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#76 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#340 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2229, -110.8822 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poet's Square scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.0% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$988 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Poet's Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Poet's Square risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.84.8This tracttract 003304Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,133Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 17.92%Avg annual filing rate
  • 27.1%Peak (2008)
  • 113Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190033042004: 175 filings (16.72/100 renter HHs)2005: 212 filings (23.70/100 renter HHs)2006: 211 filings (23.59/100 renter HHs)2007: 218 filings (24.38/100 renter HHs)2008: 242 filings (27.06/100 renter HHs)2009: 224 filings (25.05/100 renter HHs)2010: 150 filings (13.79/100 renter HHs)2011: 173 filings (15.08/100 renter HHs)2012: 158 filings (13.78/100 renter HHs)2013: 116 filings (10.11/100 renter HHs)2016: 141 filings (12.10/100 renter HHs)2017: 113 filings (9.70/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 35% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square

Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

This is renter territory: 67% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Cost burden runs about half here against 43.8% across Pima County.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 0.9 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.

The filing record is not thin: 2,133 evictions over 12 years of observation. At $988 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Tucson commands. The worst year on record was 2008, when 27.1% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 17.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 6.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003304

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003304?

Census tract 04019003304 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003304?

Median gross rent is $988/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003304?

21.0% of residents in tract 04019003304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,319.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003304?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 29th, minority 65th, housing 76th.
Q5

Is tract 04019003304 considered part of Poet's Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003304 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003304?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,133 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.92% of renter households, peaking at 27.1% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019003304 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019003304 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003304 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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