Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Poet's Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003102 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,783 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 04019003102 sits in the Poet's Square area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. Population here is 3,783. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,896
Renter share60.8%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate23.7%
Median income$37,629
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
97
th percentile
Very High
Within county
94
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2373, -110.8829 · click any tract to drill in
Why Poet's Square scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
23.7% poverty · this tract
5.9
Supply constraint
$792 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Poet's Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 69%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 85%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,035Total filings over 12 yrs
- 9.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 17.2%Peak (2006)
- 77Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Poet's Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.6%Housing insecurity
- 10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.7%Food insecurity
- 16.4%SNAP enrollment
- 10.8%Transit barriers
- 12.5%No health insurance
- 17.7%Frequent mental distress
- 37.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Poet's Square
27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Average gross rent is $792, 31% below the Tucson average.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,035 filings here across 12 tracked years. Cost burden runs 48% here against 43.8% across Pima County. The worst year on record was 2006, when 17.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 9.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003102?
Census tract 04019003102 in the Poet's Square neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003102?
Median gross rent is $792/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003102?
23.7% of residents in tract 04019003102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,783.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 77th, minority 67th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003102 considered part of Poet's Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003102 fall within Poet's Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003102?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,035 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.88% of renter households, peaking at 17.2% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019003102 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019003102 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003102 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Barrio Histórico District
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Emery Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Jefferson Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Vandenberg Village
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Poet's Square
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Hollywood
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Emery Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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