Within parent city
49
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019003502 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,814
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 04019003502 (Tucson, Arizona) comes in at 5.6/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 60% of renter households, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $908 a month against an average household income of $44,583 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 51% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,696
Renter share50.9%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$44,583
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
78
th percentile
High
National
69
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2087, -110.8756 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$908 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,601Total filings over 12 yrs
- 21.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 34.4%Peak (2008)
- 129Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 59% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.7%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 21.4%Food insecurity
- 17.3%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 15.3%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 38.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,601 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 21.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 34.4% of renter households in 2008.
In CDC survey modeling, about 15.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003502?
Census tract 04019003502 in Tucson scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003502?
Median gross rent is $908/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003502?
14.5% of residents in tract 04019003502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,814.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 76th, minority 69th, housing 92th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,601 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.52% of renter households, peaking at 34.4% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019003502 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019003502 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003502 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002202
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
04019003506
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Keeling
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
El Cortez
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Twelve Hundred River Condominums
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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