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Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Broadway Northeast Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004039 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,327 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Eviction risk in the Broadway Northeast area of Tucson centers on tract 04019004039, which scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 2,327 residents. It lands near the 63rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 53% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $855 monthly, set against $39,335 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 55% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 26% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,708
Renter share54.6%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate13.9%
Median income$39,335

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Broadway Northeast
Low
Within parent city
52 th percentile
Rank, 52nd percentileLowHigh
#69 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#78 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#382 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2294, -110.8279 · click any tract to drill in

Why Broadway Northeast scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.9% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$855 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Broadway Northeast compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Broadway Northeast risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.94.9This tracttract 004039Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 983Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 10.24%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.9%Peak (2004)
  • 80Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040392004: 126 filings (15.89/100 renter HHs)2005: 60 filings (7.91/100 renter HHs)2006: 75 filings (9.88/100 renter HHs)2007: 109 filings (14.36/100 renter HHs)2008: 109 filings (14.36/100 renter HHs)2009: 78 filings (10.28/100 renter HHs)2010: 60 filings (7.51/100 renter HHs)2011: 90 filings (9.76/100 renter HHs)2012: 59 filings (6.40/100 renter HHs)2013: 61 filings (6.62/100 renter HHs)2016: 76 filings (9.68/100 renter HHs)2017: 80 filings (10.19/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 37% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Broadway Northeast. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Broadway Northeast

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004039

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004039?

Census tract 04019004039 in the Broadway Northeast neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004039?

Median gross rent is $855/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004039?

13.9% of residents in tract 04019004039 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,327.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004039?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 74th, minority 51th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004039 considered part of Broadway Northeast?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004039 fall within Broadway Northeast (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004039?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 983 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004039 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.24% of renter households, peaking at 15.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004039 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004039 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004039 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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