Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Broadway Northeast Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004039 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,327 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04019004039 in the Broadway Northeast area of Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,327. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.2/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,708
Renter share54.6%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate13.9%
Median income$39,335
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2294, -110.8279 · click any tract to drill in
Why Broadway Northeast scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.9% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$855 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Broadway Northeast compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 82
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 983Total filings over 12 yrs
- 10.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.9%Peak (2004)
- 80Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 37% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Broadway Northeast. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.7%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 10.7%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 39.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Broadway Northeast
The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs about half here against 43.8% across Pima County. At $855 a month, rents run 25% under what the rest of Tucson commands.
The filing record is not thin: 983 evictions over 12 years of observation. It sits 0.7 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
The worst year on record was 2004, when 15.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 10.2% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $39,335. 55% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004039
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004039?
Census tract 04019004039 in the Broadway Northeast neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004039?
Median gross rent is $855/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004039?
13.9% of residents in tract 04019004039 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,327.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004039?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 74th, minority 51th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004039 considered part of Broadway Northeast?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004039 fall within Broadway Northeast (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004039?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 983 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004039 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.24% of renter households, peaking at 15.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004039 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004039 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004039 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019004035
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Poet's Square
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004112
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Dunbar Spring
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Emery Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Twelve Hundred River Condominums
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Related