Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally

Vandenberg Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Tucson

Tract 04019003601 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,538 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 04019003601 sits in the Vandenberg Village area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. This is renter territory: 100% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Risk score

3.4

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 53% Stable renters 47% Owners 0%

Tract context

Occupied units1,399

Renter share99.5%

SVI overall0.46

Poverty rate7.6%

Median income$62,428

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1836, -110.8729 · click any tract to drill in

Why Vandenberg Village scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tucson

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.9

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

7.6% poverty · this tract

1.9

Supply constraint

$1,575 rent vs county FMR

6.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tucson

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tucson

5.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tucson

4.5

How Vandenberg Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 46

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

56%Socioeconomic
22%Household composition
67%Racial/ethnic minority
40%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Vandenberg Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.4%Housing insecurity
7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
14.3%Food insecurity
9.4%SNAP enrollment
10.5%Transit barriers
11.3%No health insurance
22.3%Frequent mental distress
26.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Vandenberg Village

At $1,575 a month, rents run 38% over what the rest of Tucson commands. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Pima County average of 43.8%. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10.

14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The voucher gap is 14.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

It tracks the Pima County average of 3.9 closely. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $62,428.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003601?

Census tract 04019003601 in the Vandenberg Village neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04019003601?

Median gross rent is $1,575/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003601?

7.6% of residents in tract 04019003601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,538.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 56th, household 22th, minority 67th, housing 40th.

Is tract 04019003601 considered part of Vandenberg Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003601 fall within Vandenberg Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04019003601 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04019003601 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003601 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.