Historic Grove Street Neighborhood Eviction Risk: High

SNAP participation is 39.0% of households versus 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 35%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. 20.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 1.9/10. 21% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Cost burden runs 39% against 32.0% citywide, putting Historic Grove Street Neighborhood 7.3% over its own city.

Sitting well above the midpoint is economic stress at 8/10. Running hot is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10. At $947 a month, rents sit 12% under what the rest of Rochester commands.

That places it #1 of 36 neighborhoods in Rochester. The closest comparables inside the same city are Mayor's Heights and Beechwood. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

With little internal variation, 9.5/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.