Plymouth-Exchange Eviction Risk: High

Annualized rent equals 73% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. Against a Rochester baseline of 32.0%, roughly two in three of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. 38.4% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 66%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 94% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.5/10. 17.8% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

That places it #1 of 36 neighborhoods in Rochester. The closest comparables inside the same city are Mayor's Heights and Historic Grove Street Neighborhood.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 9.5/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.