South Erie Hillside Eviction Risk: Moderate

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 48%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. The severe-burden share is 32%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Set annual rent against average household income of $22,050 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.3/10.

At $699 a month, rents sit 20% under what the rest of Erie commands. The filing record is not thin: 340 evictions logged in this tract. Filing activity peaked in 2001 at 6.7% of renter households.

Recent filings have not receded much: 8.1% in 2006 against a 6.7% peak. Among the 26 mapped neighborhoods of Erie, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

For a like-for-like read, Saint Mary and Baldwin Park score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

One tract means one number: 5.8/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.