Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Rancho de Arboleda Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa
Tract 04013420302 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,837 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 04013420302 sits in the Rancho de Arboleda area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. Population here is 4,837. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,591
Renter share11.7%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate12.0%
Median income$132,712
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
20
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
22
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4586, -111.7775 · click any tract to drill in
Why Rancho de Arboleda scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
12.0% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,603 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Rancho de Arboleda compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 11%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 207Total filings over 5 yrs
- 25.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 32.8%Peak (2003)
- 28Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 36% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Rancho de Arboleda. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.8%Food insecurity
- 7.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 7.7%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Rancho de Arboleda
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Severe burden reaches 12%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 207 filings here across 5 tracked years.
SNAP participation runs 7.9% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.8% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 32.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 25.8% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013420302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420302?
Census tract 04013420302 in the Rancho de Arboleda neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013420302?
Median gross rent is $1,603/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420302?
12.0% of residents in tract 04013420302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,837.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 76th, minority 32th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 04013420302 considered part of Rancho de Arboleda?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420302 fall within Rancho de Arboleda (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 207 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 25.75% of renter households, peaking at 32.8% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013420302 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013420302 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013420302 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Culdesac Tempe
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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Buckhorn
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Velda Rose Estates
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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