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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Rancho de Arboleda Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013420603 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,028 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 04013420603 sits in the Rancho de Arboleda area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. Cost burden runs 66% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 12% Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,305
Renter share35.2%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$95,673

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Rancho de Arboleda
Very Low
Within parent city
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#112 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Very Low
Within county
22 th percentile
Rank, 22nd percentileLowHigh
#791 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4445, -111.7793 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rancho de Arboleda scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,713 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Rancho de Arboleda compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Rancho de Arboleda risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 420603Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 55

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 255Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 16.72%Avg annual filing rate
  • 22.9%Peak (2001)
  • 37Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134206032001: 69 filings (22.92/100 renter HHs)2002: 43 filings (14.29/100 renter HHs)2003: 51 filings (16.94/100 renter HHs)2004: 55 filings (18.27/100 renter HHs)2005: 37 filings (11.18/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 46% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Rancho de Arboleda. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rancho de Arboleda

Severe burden reaches 36%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 255 evictions over 5 years of observation.

SNAP participation runs 6.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 10.3% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

The worst year on record was 2001, when 22.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 16.7% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013420603

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420603?

Census tract 04013420603 in the Rancho de Arboleda neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013420603?

Median gross rent is $1,713/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420603?

4.9% of residents in tract 04013420603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,028.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420603?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 37th, minority 51th, housing 94th.
Q5

Is tract 04013420603 considered part of Rancho de Arboleda?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420603 fall within Rancho de Arboleda (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420603?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 255 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420603 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.72% of renter households, peaking at 22.9% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013420603 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013420603 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013420603 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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