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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa

Tract 04013421201 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,321 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

With a score of 4.5/10, tract 04013421201 in the Tempe Cascade area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,321 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25% Stable renters 40% Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units2,631
Renter share65.5%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate19.4%
Median income$74,380

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Tempe Cascade
High
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#30 of 133 tracts In Mesa
High
Within county
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#272 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#471 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4339, -111.8724 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tempe Cascade scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
19.4% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,545 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Tempe Cascade compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tempe Cascade risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 421201Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 858Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 26.98%Avg annual filing rate
  • 44.5%Peak (2001)
  • 97Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134212012001: 283 filings (44.48/100 renter HHs)2002: 238 filings (37.41/100 renter HHs)2003: 96 filings (15.09/100 renter HHs)2004: 144 filings (22.63/100 renter HHs)2005: 97 filings (15.30/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 66% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. This is renter territory: 65% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 38% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. 11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 858 eviction filings across 5 observed years. It sits 0.8 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

The worst year on record was 2001, when 44.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 27.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Average gross rent is $1,545, close to the Mesa average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421201

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421201?

Census tract 04013421201 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421201?

Median gross rent is $1,545/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421201?

19.4% of residents in tract 04013421201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,321.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 11th, minority 63th, housing 32th.
Q5

Is tract 04013421201 considered part of Tempe Cascade?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421201 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421201?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 858 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 26.98% of renter households, peaking at 44.5% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013421201 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013421201 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421201 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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