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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013421202 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,576 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

Tract 04013421202 sits in the Tempe eviction risk Cascade area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. Population here is 3,576. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 15% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,429
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$83,281

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 5 tracts In Tempe Cascade
Low
Within parent city
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#53 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Elevated
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#430 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#756 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4270, -111.8633 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tempe Cascade scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,124 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Tempe Cascade compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tempe Cascade risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.73.7This tracttract 421202Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 394Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 8.13%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.7%Peak (2001)
  • 67Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134212022001: 92 filings (9.70/100 renter HHs)2002: 90 filings (9.49/100 renter HHs)2003: 71 filings (7.49/100 renter HHs)2004: 74 filings (7.81/100 renter HHs)2005: 67 filings (6.18/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

At $1,124 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of Mesa commands. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Court records carry 394 eviction filings across 5 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2001, when 9.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 8.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $83,281, annual rent is just 16%.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for about half of renters. It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.

29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421202?

Census tract 04013421202 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421202?

Median gross rent is $1,124/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421202?

15.0% of residents in tract 04013421202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,576.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 29th, minority 64th, housing 84th.
Q5

Is tract 04013421202 considered part of Tempe Cascade?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421202 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 394 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.13% of renter households, peaking at 9.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013421202 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013421202 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421202 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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