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Neighborhood · Ranked #46,312 of 84,120 nationally

Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013421304 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,099 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

How risky is Tempe Cascade in Mesa for landlords? Census tract 04013421304 scores 5.1/10, the Moderate tier. On the national scale it ranks #47,357 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 64% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,481 a month while the average household earns $48,924 a year, roughly 36% of income at the averages. About 97% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 63% Stable renters 35% Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units1,756
Renter share97.3%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$48,924

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Tempe Cascade
Moderate
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#34 of 133 tracts In Mesa
High
Within county
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#380 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#812 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4111, -111.8722 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tempe Cascade scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,481 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Tempe Cascade compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tempe Cascade risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.73.7This tracttract 421304Mesa: 2.82.8Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,744Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 68.80%Avg annual filing rate
  • 104.3%Peak (2005)
  • 478Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134213042001: 308 filings (58.33/100 renter HHs)2002: 263 filings (49.81/100 renter HHs)2003: 308 filings (58.33/100 renter HHs)2004: 387 filings (73.30/100 renter HHs)2005: 478 filings (104.25/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 55% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade

What moves this score most is economic stress at 3.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mesa eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 78th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421304

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421304?

Census tract 04013421304 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421304?

Median gross rent is $1,481/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421304?

13.0% of residents in tract 04013421304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,099.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421304?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 36th, minority 74th, housing 88th.
Q5

Is tract 04013421304 considered part of Tempe Cascade?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421304 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421304?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,744 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 68.80% of renter households, peaking at 104.3% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013421304 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013421304 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421304 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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